Silicon Valley's AI Political Groups Turn on Each Other Ahead of the Midterms

Silicon Valley's effort to dominate artificial intelligence politics has turned into a contest with itself. One week before the midterm election, groups favoring faster AI development and lighter, more uniform rules have spent roughly $8 million in general-election congressional races. Groups pushing for stronger safeguards and more room for states to regulate have spent about $6.9 million, according to a CNBC analysis of Federal Election Commission filings through Oct. 20.

Florida's 25th Congressional District shows the split most clearly. During the primary, Think Big, an affiliate of the Leading the Future network, spent $310,000 supporting Democrat Jared Moskowitz, whose district changed after Florida redrew its map. Defending Our Values, a super PAC favoring stricter guardrails and state-level authority, spent almost $857,000 to boost Republican Scott Singer and another $740,000 to keep one of his primary opponents from winning. Moskowitz and Singer now meet in the general election.

The rivalry was not the original plan. The model was cryptocurrency. Fairshake and its affiliated pro-crypto super PACs, backed by Coinbase, Ripple and Andreessen Horowitz, spent more than $130 million in the 2024 cycle, according to FEC filings. CoinDesk reported that candidates it supported won 53 of 58 races, a 91% success rate.

AI investors took note. In August 2025, Leading the Future launched with more than $100 million in commitments from backers including Andreessen Horowitz, OpenAI President Greg Brockman and his wife, Anna, and Joe Lonsdale. Co-led by Josh Vlasto, a former Fairshake staffer, it created a Democratic PAC, Think Big, and a Republican PAC, American Mission. Critics saw an attempt at intimidation. Sacha Haworth of the Tech Oversight Project said the industry planned to "bully lawmakers into submission."

A rival network emerged. Anthropic committed $20 million to Public First Action in February and another $20 million in July. The company says its money is limited to policy and public education and cannot fund candidate elections, though separately funded super PACs tied to Public First Action have spent millions on similar priorities.

The clash became visible in New York's 12th District Democratic primary. Think Big spent $8.3 million trying to defeat Assemblymember Alex Bores, author of major state AI safety legislation. The Anthropic-backed Jobs and Democracy PAC spent about $15 million to support him. Bores lost to Micah Lasher, 39% to 35%, a tactical win for Think Big. The two groups' combined $23.3 million was about 40% of the two camps' primary spending nationwide.

In the general election, the fight continues at a slower pace. Safeguards-focused groups have spent $825,000 this fall opposing two Republicans who benefited from Leading the Future-aligned primary spending, Jay Feely in Arizona and Aaron Flint in Montana. Guardrails Alliance reported $412,500 against each. It also reported about $412,000 against Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez of California.

Overall, about 74% of the roughly $78.5 million the groups have spent on federal candidates this cycle went to primaries. Leading the Future's network reported about $26 million in primary spending versus about $8 million in the general election, while safeguards-focused groups reported $32.1 million and $6.9 million. Public sentiment may be a factor. A new CNBC All-America Economic Survey found 52% of registered voters want companies to pause advanced AI development until Congress passes regulations, versus 32% who favor moving ahead. Sixty-three percent oppose an AI data center within 10 miles of their home.

Some donors are pulling back. The Brockmans gave $25 million to Leading the Future but later dropped plans for another $25 million, according to The New York Times. Groups funded by Meta returned $25 million this summer, cutting its planned state-level push from $65 million to about $40 million. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told Politico earlier this month, "Something's clearly not working."