Israelis Vote in First Knesset Election Since the October 7 Attack

Polling stations opened across Israel at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday, with eligible voters choosing the country's next Knesset in a race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition and an opposition bloc that wants to replace him.

Exit polls are due at 10:00 p.m., giving a first projection of the outcome. Official results will be finalized in the coming days once the count is complete. Voting at Israeli diplomatic missions abroad ended on October 16, and soldiers at some military bases began casting ballots last week.

This is the first national election since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, and the issues on voters' minds have shifted considerably since the previous vote in 2022. Among the central topics are the severe manpower shortage in the Israel Defense Forces after three years of war, contentious legislation on conscription of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men, and demands for a state commission of inquiry into government failures surrounding the attack.

Traditional questions such as the creation of a Palestinian state have receded, as Israel's security outlook has changed and most parties oppose statehood. The future of Netanyahu himself is also a major theme. He has led Israel for 19 non-consecutive years, and the opposition argues he should be held accountable for the attack and no longer serve as prime minister.

Recent polling points to no clear winner. In most surveys, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has moved ahead of Netanyahu's Likud, yet neither bloc looks able to win 61 seats without the support of Arab parties. The final Channel 12 poll, released Friday, put Netanyahu's bloc at 50 seats and the opposition bloc at 56. Arab parties were projected to take a combined 16 seats, though most opposition leaders have pledged not to form a government with them, saying such a coalition would not be viable after October 7.

In that poll, Yashar was projected to win 22 seats, ahead of Likud with 19, down from the 32 it holds in the outgoing Knesset. B'Yachad, led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett, was projected to win 14.

Turnout could prove decisive for smaller parties. The electoral threshold is 3.25% of valid votes, so the number of votes needed rises with participation. The Taub Center, in calculations by Prof. Alex Weinreb, estimated that at a 70% turnout, similar to 2022, a party would need 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset. Parties fighting to clear the bar include Ofer Winter's People of Israel and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economics. Whether they get in is expected to significantly affect either bloc's ability to build a coalition.

Police have prepared for possible clashes and public order disruptions, especially in the hours after exit polls are released. On Monday they announced that about 20,000 police officers, Border Police officers and volunteers would be active nationwide, with forces deployed at thousands of polling stations and surrounding areas. The aim, police said, is to "safeguard the integrity of the elections, and ensure that the democratic process is conducted properly and in accordance with the law."