Thune Walks a Careful Line as Midterms Test His Bid to Hold the Senate

Senate Majority Leader John Thune spent last Friday in Sioux City, Iowa, at a roundtable with six local business owners alongside Rep. Ashley Hinson. The event came less than a day after President Trump rallied supporters in an airplane hangar in the same western Iowa town, and the mood was far quieter. It was one stop in Thune's final push before the midterms to help Republican Senate candidates.

Hinson was asked the question that has followed GOP candidates all fall: how can she satisfy the president's demand for loyalty while his policies grow less popular? She repeated her usual reply, that she would support him when she agrees and be a "thorn in his side" when she does not. Thune, who has walked that same line for nearly two years, barely reacted.

The South Dakota Republican has tried to advance the president's agenda while protecting the Senate's independence. With a week left before voting, the election is the clearest test of that strategy. A map that once favored Republicans has become risky, in part because of an unpopular war with Iran and persistently high gas prices.

In his Capitol office earlier this fall, Thune said "Nothing's a guarantee. There are no layups." He acknowledged the gas price problem but argued that his party's policies have set up the economy and job creators for success. He said the conditions for growth are there, and that winning would come down to messaging, the ground game and the "blocking and tackling of elections."

Thune, 65, was chosen as leader after the 2024 election. Colleagues describe him as a team player and a kind person. Sen. Mike Rounds called him steady and slow to lose his temper, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski called him "a really decent man." Even Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has called him a "good and decent American." Under his leadership the Senate passed the president's tax, border security and defense agenda through half a dozen overnight vote sessions, along with bipartisan measures on housing, stablecoins, revenge porn and fentanyl.

That record risks being overshadowed by the war, which began in February. Only a handful of Republicans have broken with the president on it, and across more than a dozen Democratic-forced votes on war powers, most of the GOP conference stayed united in opposition. That record now follows them on the campaign trail.

Thune grew up in Murdo, South Dakota, a town of about 500 with no stoplights. He was a high school basketball standout, played at Biola University, and worked for Sen. Jim Abdnor before serving in the Small Business Administration under Ronald Reagan. He won three House terms starting in 1996, lost a Senate race in 2002 by fewer than 600 votes, then defeated Democratic leader Tom Daschle in 2004 by more than 4,000 votes.

His relationship with Mr. Trump has been uneven. In 2016 he called for Mr. Trump to withdraw from the race, and after the Jan. 6 attack he called the president's actions "inexcusable." He later aligned with the party behind Mr. Trump, and vowed to work with him while keeping the Senate an independent body.

That tension surfaced in late June, when Mr. Trump canceled a housing bill signing at the last minute to press for the SAVE America Act, which Thune had said lacked the votes. Thune also defends the legislative filibuster, which the president wants gone. The stance has drawn criticism from the right and impatience from Mr. Trump. Thune, who says "Life is supposed to be hard," now waits to see whether voters reward his approach.