Democrats Hold Midterm Edge in New Poll as Israelis Vote in Pivotal Election

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds Democrats well positioned heading into the midterm elections, with the party favored to take control of the U.S. House. The survey also contains signs that any wave in their favor could be limited.

Among likely voters, Democrats lead by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot, NPR's Domenico Montanaro said. President Trump's approval rating stands at 40%, a slight improvement but still a weak showing. Montanaro said it looks unlikely that Democrats will lose the House, while control of the Senate remains a toss-up. He also urged patience, since winners in many close races probably will not be known by election night, which is normal when votes are tightly contested.

Economic worries loom large in the poll. One in three Americans report financial hardship, and four in 10 say their personal finances are getting worse. Protecting democracy resonates most with Democrats and independents, while immigration is the top issue for MAGA supporters.

Election integrity is also in the news. A federal judge is hearing arguments on Tuesday in the Trump administration's effort to force California to set aside ballots from voters it alleges may not be citizens. The hearing follows a decision by an appeals court the previous night to decline the administration's request to get involved.

Trump announced a $1 million reward for tips on voter fraud that lead to a conviction. NPR's Eric McDaniel noted that the president has alleged fraud in every election he has taken part in, and that Democrats, election officials and good-governance groups are preparing for similar claims. The White House says its efforts are meant to secure elections, but McDaniel said credible evidence of voter fraud large enough to change an election outcome in the U.S. has never been found. Separately, with the elections a week away, Polymarket has already investigated "dozens" of bets on its prediction markets tied to the midterms, according to Shana Bautista, the company's head of global intelligence and investigations.

In Israel, voters are going to the polls in an election expected to shape the country's future. It is the first time since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that Israelis can choose their leaders. The choice is between keeping Benjamin Netanyahu, the far-right and longest-serving prime minister, or replacing him with Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who promises more diplomacy and less extremism.

NPR's Ruth Sherlock reported that high turnout is expected and that many voters see the contest as critical, with some Israelis abroad flying home to take part. At one polling station she met Itamar Ariel, who believes only Netanyahu can guarantee Israel's security despite the country's problems. Others say Netanyahu should be voted out over security failures, and those seeking new leadership want an investigation into how the Oct. 7 attacks happened, something Netanyahu has blocked.

Sherlock said that by Wednesday morning it should be clear which side won the most seats in Parliament, though counting could continue for days. The next prime minister will not be known until after days or possibly weeks of negotiations between the parties.